You state that the forecasts provided differ from normal weather forecasts, can you explain?
Normal weather forecasting often aims to forecast generally what the weather will be like on a particular date. This a huge challenge in that an enormous number of variables need to be considered. The forecasts on this site aim to specifically identify when Tropical Storms and Hurricanes are likely to break out, this reduces the variables we have to consider. Forecasts of severe weather published here for a particular location and at a specific point in time do NOT imply that severe weather will not occur at other times or locations.
You make forecasts for storm activity in a particular place and at a particular time, what about other places and other times?
The answer is simply that if we don’t feel confident then we don’t forecast. The forecasts we make are “affirmative” i.e. if we are confident of a high probability that severe weather will be experienced at a particular time and place we will make a forecast; if we are not confident we will not publish.
Your forecasts are made a long time in advance of the event, how is this possible?
We use tidal phenomena as the basis of our storm pattern models and we can accurately calculate tidal factors far in advance of their occurrence. Our assumption is that the release of latent energy in the ocean is triggered by tidal factors.
How accurate are your forecasts?
We aim only to publish forecasts in which we have a high degree of confidence. We believe that our forecasts are the most accurate available. Of course often our models suggest that severe weather is likely to occur, but we refrain from publishing this information unless the model meets very high probability criteria.